Consider a world where the only way to die was in a sudden accident, such as a car accident, falling down the stairs, or being struck by lightning. But did you know how long people would live given that there were no external factors?
An analysis based on insurance industry data concluded that without aging or disease, people would live nearly 9,000 years before being killed in an accident, murder, or disaster.
Living for Thousands of Years
The good people at data site Polstats recently staged a thought experiment in which they pretended that paradigm-shifting medical and social breakthroughs could eliminate all natural causes of death, such as cancer, heart attacks, and all age-related diseases. Polstats created a fantastic simulation of 100 people living in such a world using data from the Insurance Information Institute.
According to the visualization, life expectancy in the United States would rise from an average of 78 years to a whopping 8,938 years. And that is only on average. In a world of such slim chances, life expectancy for a lucky few can reach 30,000 years or longer, in one of the simulations we ran, the 100th death occurred after 45,641 years. (Source: Gizmodo)
What were the Only Causes of Death?
In a world devoid of all natural causes of death, the only way we’d die would be in car accidents, drownings, homicides, fires, and so on. As the visualization shows, most of us would be killed in a car accident which is 0.011 percent of all causes of death, with firearm assault a distant second, 0.0035 percent of all causes of death. The other most common causes of accidental death are fires, stair falls, and drowning.
A lot of assumptions are made in this simulation. Given how many different ways to die, both natural and unnatural, this is a concise list. It assumes we’ve cured not only all known diseases but also age-related diseases we’re unaware of, perhaps some diseases won’t affect us until we’re several centuries old. It also assumes that childbirth, starvation, and malnutrition deaths have been eliminated. Finally, it assumes a certain level of stability in the United States and that an unexpected war or pandemic does not wipe out the majority of humanity.
Aside from those caveats, the exercise reminds us that we will all have to shed our mortal coils at some point. It may take some time, but something out there will eventually kill us. (Source: Gizmodo)
How Will You Die?
When you ask yourself, How will I die? There’s no way to know for sure, and data like this can only reflect the possibilities and likelihood of death based on the deaths of others. If you use these odds of dying as predictions, remember that they should not prevent you from engaging in activities and behaviors you enjoy. For example, getting out of bed in the morning when you’re 90 is a high-risk activity. Does this imply that a 90-year-old should not get out of bed? On the other hand, it’s generally a good idea to avoid heroin and opioid painkillers. The latter is responsible for one out of every 109 deaths in the United States. (Source: Gizmodo)
Image from GarrisonInstitute